About the Author
Josh is the multi-faceted Lead Developer at Tocquigny, with extensive experience in web technologies, user experience design, server administration, and ping pong.
A Futurist Perspective: 5 Years and Beyond
Some reasonable (and a few slightly more far-fetched) predictions for the near future:
As the requirement to register, log in, and populate a profile becomes an even greater challenge with the millions of sites that offer user-centric services; a unified, open-source, and decentralized ID system will become prevalent. It will function like a universal Open Directory (LDAP) service, and users will be able to automatically log into any site that supports it. Technologies such as OpenID are already beginning to make this a reality.
Storage in the cloud will become widely useable, with email, photo, video, and other services all allowing your user-generated content to be pulled from central locations on the Internet. Your documents, your pictures, and your music are now available anywhere you go.
Search engines and user-centric services will offer intensely personalized experiences, with geography, tastes, demographic, and everything else being used to better target shopping experiences, news and information consumption, and even romantic interests.
Geolocation via Internet addresses gives way to the mobile masses, with targeting now done even more accurately with GPS-enabled devices being the primary method of Internet connectivity.
E-mail finally gives way to more advanced systems of communication, bridging IM with RSS for immediate and structured discussions with far more support for rich media. Similarly, communications converge into a standard protocol; AOL’s instant messenger network cooperates with Yahoo, Jabber works with MSN, and instant communication becomes only a matter of choosing the client that suits your needs.
The web browser becomes a more integral part of the computer operating system, with a vast number of applications being written exclusively for this connected, multi-platform system. Mobile devices take over the mainstream, with PCs becoming a stationary media device with mobile device docking capability. You take your computer with you wherever you go, simply docking it with a large screen TV to assume functionality in the old stationary PC fashion. There are no more DVRs or separate media players; a docking station will include all of these capabilities.
Fiber access is standard, and speeds exceed the broadband of today thanks to more efficient and powerful network switching. The computational capabilities of processors increase exponentially, rendering older digital cryptography useless. The synergy of inexpensive, powerful hardware and affordable internet access completes the transition of moving all information delivery services to the internet. Your television service, for example, becomes ubiquitously on-demand, with most media and consumable content being delivered on the fly.
A larger portion of education will occur online, with like-minded social networks becoming training grounds for ultra-specific concentrations. The IT elite, for example, will band together more strongly with new tools that allow them to engage in a constant learning and personal social environment.
Advertisements are now mini-apps with point-of-sale built in. When an ad tells you about a product, you can use the app to buy the product directly instead of having to go to another website to complete the process. This tailors to the goal of instant gratification and is the ultimate reduction in barrier to entry for sales.
The traditional bounding box for rich media advertisements is abandoned in favor of deeper integration. Ads now appear grossly contextual, with the rich media experience either entirely overlaying the website briefly or melding with the site to become a part of it. For example, combined with deep personalization and better targeting, hovering over text dealing with produce will result in a tree sprouting and an apple falling onto your mouse pointer as an advertisement for a grocery store in your community. Video of an advertisement could play in the background of the site.
The next stage of viral ads: Advertisements cease to be static text -- or even animated banners -- and start to become fully-functional and self-contained services. The purpose of the advertisement becomes a way to offer functionality while informing you of the product or service. They can be construed as widgets, encouraging interaction and providing reason for users to link them to other friends, embed them in websites, or create mashups based on them.